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Q5TrackerST, also known as Q5SideWinder after major changes to its logic in July 2008, is a NASDAQ-100 Timing System that generates Buy and Sell signals, after the market close, for the next market days opening price. System is always in the market and is suitable for trading QQQQ (Long & Short - recommended for account sizes 3K+), QLD & QID (Long & Inverse - account sizes 7K+), or Rydex Funds (recommended) such as RYVYX & RYVNX (Long & Inverse - account sizes 25K+ with Rydex but may be traded with small $100 accounts at brokers such as TD Ameritrade).
SideWinder averages approximately 26 trades per year. All trades are generated by computer algorithm that analyzes price and time from 1987 to the present using traditional and proprietary technical analysis.
Signals are usually sent out between 9pm and Midnight EST and orders placed before the next market open @ 9:30am EST. I assume a commission price of $9.99 per trade and, though I use market orders on the open, I try to avoid the use of margin by leaving uninvested cash in the account.
I trade this system in my TD Ameritrade account using Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x funds.
Signals from this system
are independently tracked at:
http://q5sidewinder.collective2.com
and
http://TimerTrac.com See also: http://www.q5research.com/TimerTrac-Q5TrackerST-Q5SideWinder.pdf
Estimated Win/Loss Ratio: 1.36 - 2.20 / 1
Estimated Max Account Draw Down: 46% (23%, if not using 2x leveraged funds)
Estimated Max Trade Draw Down: 32% (16%, if not using 2x leveraged funds)
Estimated Max Consecutive Losses: 5 (24% total loss, 12% if not using 2x funds)
Estimated Percent Winning Trades: 60% to 70%
Estimated Percent Losing Trades: 40% to 30%
Estimated CAGR: 30%+ (15%+ if not using 2x leveraged funds)
Historical Walk Forward Testing from 07/31/2008 thru 12/02/2011
using Rydex NASDAQ-100 2x funds:
CAGR: 42.21%
Profitable Months%: 67%
Max consecutive losing months: 2 (-27.70%)
Worst Month: -22.68% (06/10)
Best Month: 27.37% (09/10)
DISCLAIMER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. QLD & QID ETFS SEEK 200% THE PERFORMANCE OF THE NASDAQ-100 INDEX BY USING LEVERAGE. PLEASE READ THE PROSPECTUS FOR BOTH QLD & QID BEFORE INVESTING. THIS IS AN AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY THAT SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY VOLATILE MOVES IN EQUITY AND EXTREME RISK.
http://www.proshares.com/funds/qld.html
http://www.proshares.com/funds/qid.html
Also see Rydex:
http://www.rydex-sgi.com/products/mutual_funds/info/overview.rails?cusip=783554413
http://www.rydex-sgi.com/products/mutual_funds/info/overview.rails?cusip=783554397
Trading Rules Overview:
http://www.q5research.com/Q5SideWinder-A NASDAQ-100 Timing Strategy.doc
-Art Hayner
ahayner@nycap.rr.com